“Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?”
– Robert Orben, American comedic writer.
Regardless of what political polls were trusted or paid attention to, U.S. voters are seeing “red” following November’s General Election.
The victory by Donald J. Trump in the 2024 election headlined a red wave of support for Republican candidates, as the GOP regained the presidential seat and U.S. Senate majority while maintaining its majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
U.S. President
Trump and Vice President running mate J.D. Vance became the first Republican ticket to win the nation’s popular vote in the presidential election in 20 years. The last time this occurred was when George W. Bush defeated Democrat John Kerry in the 2004 election.
Along with winning the popular vote with 76.9 million (49.9%) votes to the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris-Tim Walz’s 74.4 million (48.3%), Trump-Vance garnered 312 electoral votes.
Among Ohio voters, Trump-Vance compiled 3.2 million (55%) votes to Harris-Waltz’s 2.5 million (44%) to capture the state’s 17 electoral votes. The U.S. Election Analysis by the National Association of Counties reports that more than 90% of the nation’s counties shifted in favor of the Republican ticket in this year’s election, which improved President-elect Trump’s vote margin from 2020 in more than 2,300 counties.
According to a 2024 Election recap by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), President-elect Trump was triumphant with voters on the issues regarding the nation’s economy and democracy. “Mr. Trump’s victory marks a turning point in American politics, showcasing shifting voter alliances and underscoring the electorate’s prioritization of economic concerns over other issues,” AGC wrote.
President-elect Trump, who will become the 47th U.S. President on Jan. 20, 2025, is the first president to serve non-sequential terms since Grover Cleveland was elected as the 22nd (1885-89) and 24th (1893-97) president. The American Road & Transportation Builder (ARTBA) noted President-elect Trump’s political comeback as especially significant, pointing out in its “2024 Election Recap” that he is “the first former president in over 130 years to win a second term after losing a first re-election bid.”
Trump, who won the 2016 election to become the 45th U.S. President, garnered more popular votes in 2024 than he did in his previous two campaigns. In 2016, he received 63 million votes in his successful bid, and in his 2020 election loss, he earned 74.2 million. This year’s 3.2 million Ohio votes also surpass the 2.8 million and 3.1 million votes he received in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively, from Buckeye State voters.
Vance, of Middletown, who was in the second year of his first term in the U.S. Senate when he was picked to join the presidential ticket in mid-July, will become the fourth Vice President of the U.S. (VPOTUS) to hail from Ohio. Previous VPOTUSs from the state were Thomas Hendricks, who served in President Cleveland’s first term; Charles Fairbanks (1905-09, Theodore Roosevelt); and Charles Dawes (1925-29, Calvin Coolidge). Fairbanks and Dawes were also Republicans.
U.S. Senate
Just as Ohio played a key role in the presidential election with Vance on the ticket, the state was also critical in the Republican Party gaining a majority in the U.S. Senate.
Entering the November 5th election, the Democrat Party – with the help of four independents who aligned with them – held a 51-49 majority in the Senate. However, with 33 U.S. Senate races on 2024 ballots, it was speculated that the upper chamber’s party majority would change from blue to red – ending the Democrat Party’s four-year majority.
Led by Bernie Moreno’s victory over three-term U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown, Ohio was one of three states where Republican candidates defeated long-time Democrat incumbents. By gaining four seats in November, Republicans will hold a 53-47 majority when the 119th U.S. Congress convenes in 2025.
Moreno, a businessman from Westlake, won his first public office seat by earning 2.8 million (50.2%) votes to Brown’s 2.6 million (46.4%). Moreno will be one of 12 new U.S. Senators taking office in January. (Editor’s note: Make that 13 new members in the next U.S. Senate, as Ohio will need to fill the current seat held by V.P.-elect Vance;)
U.S. House
With three U.S. House positions still waiting to be called entering the fourth week of November, it appears there will be more than 60 new faces in the lower house when the 119th Congress begins work next year.
With all 435 seats in the U.S. House on the 2024 ballot, Republicans held a 220-213 majority – with two vacancies. With the three aforementioned seats still undetermined, the preliminary results of fall’s election have Republicans enjoying a 219-213 advantage, as they have maintained majority for another two years.
Ohio’s 15-member U.S. House delegation maintained the same 10-5 Republican majority it had prior to the election, as 14 of the winning candidates were incumbents. Ohio’s lone freshman representative will be Republican David Taylor in District 2, who won an open seat. The state’s winning incumbents, returning to Ohio’s U.S. House delegation, are: Greg Landsman (D-District 1), Joyce Beatty (D-District 3), Jim Jordan (R-District 4), Bob Latta (R-District 5), Michael Rulli (R-District 6), Max Miller (R-District 7), Warren Davidson (R-District 8), Marcy Kaptur (D-District 9), Mike Turner (R-District 10), Shontel Brown (D-District 11), Troy Balderson (R-District 12), Emilia Sykes (D-District 13), David Joyce (R-District 14), and Mike Carey (R-District 15).
The 2024 Election’s red wave marked the first time the Republican Party has gained a “unified government” – where one political party has majority rule of the House, Senate, and Presidency – since 2019. According to NewsNation, “A unified government often means more opportunities for productivity and streamlined decision-making when it comes to legislation. The party in power will be able to pass laws faster and more efficiently without challenge from the opposing party.”
Infrastructure Expectations: 2025-2029
With Republicans in control of the White House and Capitol Hill, what does that mean for the nation’s transportation and infrastructure?
Perhaps washed from many minds in the wake of the election’s red wave is that during President-elect Trump’s first term in office, his administration did not institute any major infrastructure programs. That was not the case in the Biden Administration, as three major infrastructure programs were instituted.
Over the past four years, three major infrastructure programs were created:
The Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA), aka Bipartisan Infrastructure Law; The Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) & Science Law; and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, these federal programs may be impacted by the sweeping changes Trump says he will make in his return to office.
- IIJA – This is a five-year program providing $1.2 trillion for roads, bridges, mass transit, water infrastructure, broadband, clean water, and electric grid renewal. The final year of funding from the nation’s largest infrastructure program runs from Oct. 1, 2025, to Sept. 30, 2026. For Ohio, the IIJA will provide nearly $10 billion over five years, with major projects being funded through the program, including the Brent Spence Bridge Corridor in Cincinnati, the Interstate 70/I-71 Ramp Up in Columbus, and I-75 Rehabilitation in Montgomery County.
- CHIPS – This is a more than $53-billion investment to boost the nation’s high-tech research and bring semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. CHIPS is providing a five-year, $829-million investment to Ohio, which is currently aiding the development of Intel’s semiconductor chip manufacturing plant in Licking County.
- IRA – This is a 10-year, $739-billion investment and tax credit program with many moving parts. It aims to reduce the federal government deficit, lower prescription drug costs, and promote clean energy through investments in solar, wind, nuclear, battery storage/electric vehicle charging, and hydrogen carbon capture and storage. Policy Matters Ohio reports the IRA has announced $1.4 billion in funding to the state, which is the 10th highest in the nation.
A mid-November AGC webinar, “2024 Election Results: What Construction Companies Should Expect to See Come Out of Washington,” examined the future of these programs under the Trump Administration.
AGC Vice President of Government Relations Alex Etchen believes the IIJA and CHIPS acts will see little to no changes during President Trump’s second term, while the IRA may be in “partial danger.” Etchen noted that with 15 IIJA-supportive Republican senators still in Congress and many of the program’s appropriations fully funded, there will likely be little change to the IIJA. However, transit and rail funding, subject to future appropriations, may face debates. Similarly, the CHIPS Act is expected to remain intact, as 12 supporting Republican senators are still in Congress. With the IRA passing on party lines, Etchen foresees this program in partial danger. However, he noted that many IRA projects are located in rural areas, which are strong Republican-supportive areas.
Governing.com’s election report, “What the 2024 Election Could Mean for Transportation Policy,” predicts the IRA will remain intact mainly because of a newly formed relationship. “President-elect Donald Trump has floated the idea of ending federal tax credits for electric vehicles (EV),” wrote the Washington, D.C.-based website that covers state and local government. “But he has also formed a close partnership with Elon Musk, the owner of Tesla, one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the world. Observers project a period of ‘uncertainty’ for electric vehicle sales. The Trump White House and Republican Congress may also roll back emissions standards for gas-powered vehicles.”
An election analysis by Boston-based law firm Mintz also is forecasting little change to IIJA, CHIPS, and IRA funding, stating “many projects are popular in red states and districts, a consideration that may complicate Trump’s efforts to dismantle the program, given their appeal to voters and some Republican members of Congress …”
Behind the scenes early in President Trump’s second term will be discussion on the next surface transportation program. ARTBA said reauthorization of the transportation bill will be among the 119th Congress’ to-do list along with appropriations in the nation’s annual spending bill, the debt ceiling, and tax reform. When it comes to the transportation bill, the current program expires Sept. 30, 2026, as hearings toward writing the new law will begin in 2025.
In addition to setting the groundwork for the next federal transportation bill, forecasters see over the next four years a “streamlining of bureaucratic red tape to expedite infrastructure projects;” more public-private partnerships “aimed at leveraging private-sector investment in infrastructure” as well as “drive innovation and efficiency” in construction; and growth in energy infrastructure focusing on “expanding and modernizing pipelines, refineries and energy distribution networks.”
ARTBA’s “2024 Election Recap” provided positive vibes when it comes to the Republican-run federal government maintaining the nation’s current pro-transportation and infrastructure path. “The change in leadership in the Senate is expected to bring some long-time defenders and supporters of the 2021 reauthorization of the highway and public transportation …,” ARTBA wrote, as it listed key Senate committee leadership including: Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) chairing the Environmental & Public Works Committee, which oversees federal highway and water infrastructure programs; Susan Collins (R-Maine) leading the Appropriations Committee, which controls annual federal discretionary spending; and Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), as chair of Senate Finance Committee, which directs tax and revenue measures.
AGC leaders agree with the notion that the rising red tide can lift all boats, as they also foresee positive things when it comes to infrastructure over the next four years.
Mentioning growth in data center construction, manufacturing and renewable energy plants, and transportation infrastructure, AGC Chief Economist Ken Simonson said, “I think contractors are rightly hopeful that the new administration and Congress will be supportive of keeping tax cuts in place, perhaps lowering some taxes, and loosening some of the regulatory burdens that have slowed down construction projects …”
“Big picture, we continue to see bipartisan support for infrastructure, particularly the traditional infrastructure like roads and bridges …,” Etchen added.
Ohio General Assembly
Republicans continued their stronghold on the Ohio General Assembly. While they did lose two seats in the Ohio House and two seats in the Ohio Senate, Republican supermajorities remain in both chambers. The composition of the Ohio House in January will have 65 Republicans and 32 Democrats. The Senate will have 26 Republicans and 7 Democrats. Both chambers will also have new leaders. Current Senator and Representatives-elect Matt Huffman was informally elected Speaker of the Ohio House. Sen. Huffman currently serves as Senate President and will be moving back to the House in January, where he will take the gavel as Speaker. Sen. Rob McColley, the current President Pro Tempore of the Senate, will become Senate President next year. Rep. Allison Russo and Sen. Nickie Antonio will retain their current roles as Minority Leaders of their respective chambers.
– Michelle Holdgreve, OCA Legislative Director